Didn't see that coming

A poll released yesterday shows that if a federal election were to be held now, the Liberals might well win a majority of seats, currently projected at 177 seats where 172 is a majority.

A few short weeks ago the Conservatives were projected to win a crushing majority. Except a week is a long time in politics, and a lot has been happening. The 3 T's, Trudeau, Trump, and Tariffs have a lot to do with that swing. Plus Carney removed the carbon tax wind from Poilievre's sails. He is now scrambling for an issue, and trying to escape his previous Trump-like rhetoric.

Of course an election hasn't been called yet. Only Mark Carney knows when it will be, and if he doesn't know this very moment, he will probably decide soon. (Late breaking news as of Thursday morning, the election day is looking to be late April or early May.) I think Poilievre's head would explode if Carney cuts a deal with the Bloc to run a coalition government till October. After all, the Bloc is losing seats and would likely have far less influence after an election. Separatism (except for the Albertans breathing strange air) isn't a good look right now.

There are Albertans currently losing their minds at the thought of another Liberal government. There will be more hot air about seceding from Canada, just like there was when the Prime Minister was from Alberta. They're unhappy that Alberta doesn't get listened to and Quebec does. They think it's some sinister plot. What they are missing is an understanding of fundamental electoral numbers. Pay attention now. Those of you who already understand this can skip to the photos.

There are currently 338 seats in The House of Commons. Alberta has about 11.6% of the population in Canada and currently gets 34 seats, or essentially 10% of them. In the coming adjustment, Alberta will get 37 seats out of 343, or slightly more than 10% of the seats. One could make a mathematical argument that Alberta is slightly under represented, but there are only so many ways that the seats can be divided up between the provinces, and we have to look at what's fairest overall. There is no perfect way of dividing seats up between provinces.

Even if Alberta did get 1 or 2 more seats, it wouldn't really make any difference. The problem is that Albertans tend to vote in a bloc for Conservatives. The candidates run up huge pluralities. It's hard to get candidates to run against Conservatives in many ridings.

All the parties know this. So why would the Conservatives listen to Albertans? They're hustling for votes in Ontario and Quebec, saying the things that resonate there, looking for that majority government. Why would the Liberals, outside of a few seats in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary, waste any time or real money campaigning in Alberta? They'd far rather spend the money and effort in, you guessed it, Ontario, Quebec, and BC. 

The logic is perfectly understandable for most people. Better to spread the money and message across a large number of competitive ridings with the aim to win all of them by a small plurality. This is why Conservatives can get more votes than Liberals, and end up with fewer seats. Those votes are concentrated in a few ridings. (Things would be different in a mythical Canada running some form of a proportional representation election. Don't get me started.)

Plus, as if that wasn't enough, Quebecers do not vote in a bloc, although many of them do vote for the Bloc. They they also might vote Liberal and even Conservative, depending on the issues of the day. This habit of changing their vote makes candidates pay more attention to them. Plus, Quebec currently has 71 seats of the 338, or about 21%. It's nearly impossible to form a majority government without at least some of the seats from Quebec. It's easily possible without any seats from Alberta, and I'm pretty sure it's happened. Looking up the most recent example is left as an exercise for the student.

The Conservatives and Bloc have been trying to win non-confidence votes at every opportunity, and haven't managed it yet. Think about it. Trudeau was enormously unpopular, and yet the Conservatives couldn't win a non-confidence vote. I think that says more about a lack of confidence in Poilievre and the Conservatives. 

Who will actually win the election? Nobody knows, of course. Right now the polls are looking good for the Liberals. That could change. You will hear much blither about an unelected Prime Minister. Bah! Carney in the position he is, is perfectly legitimate according to the current rules. More than 130,000 people across all the ridings voted for him. 

For years there was much ado about our "non-finance finance minister" Chrystia Freeland. Carney has more finance and economic experience than the entire Conservative caucus. Does this make them happy? No. Now they're saying he's an "elite globalist". Carney has years of experience managing complex national economic issues. Poilievre has none. All he's good at is barking like a rabid dog.

I sort of thought that seeing behind the scenes of the flag was sort of appropriate for this post. Pity that those flag waving COVID convoy idiots perverted the message of our flag.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

Taken just a few moments after one of my all time favourite photos, an LRT emerging from the sun. This is one of the problems of streets that line up east west.

90 days, or so ago

Actually, late Feb. I couldn't help myself from taking the photo of the river otter.