Keith's Odyssey to Planet Fitness: Winter again leading to a rant

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Winter again leading to a rant

Now is the winter of our discontent

Made glorious summer by this sun of York;

And it is winter again outside. Actually snowing. It's still above zero and it's all melting as it hits the ground. For now. Linda prepared, double or triple wrapping the more tender plants in pots. That was during the sunny part of yesterday, and it rained while the work was in progress.

This is what it's doing this now, at 11am on Saturday, compared to that previous now. (And the most current now, 12:30, there is actual accumulation on the grass, but not the sidewalks or pavement. Yet.)

Some of the preparation.

We aren't fussed, though. We knew it was possible, the snow. It's always possible, sort of like Alberta separatism flare-ups.

As was said by the wit Alan Fotheringham on the election of Gordon Kessler of the Western Canada Concept party in 1982, "They're breathing a different kind of air." True then, true now.

Much of the froth around Alberta separatism reminds me of a 3 year old shrieking, "You're not the boss of me!", or "I'll hold my breath till I turn blue and then you'll be sorry."

They bleat about the Eastern elites ignoring them, and get upset because the Liberals win elections. All they see is the massive majorities that happen in most Alberta ridings and imagine that should carry over to the rest of the country. Except it doesn't. It's the number of votes IN A RIDING that elect an MP. Any excess votes do not carry over to help elect an MP in another riding. Don't get me started on proportional representation.

Those massive majorities per riding are part of the problem. All of the federal parties know two things perfectly well. That of the 37 MP seats in the House of Commons only a few of them in Edmonton and Calgary are actually in play, so there is no point in spending any serious amount of effort to win the seats. That includes the Conservatives.

They know a turnip painted blue would get elected because it happened in Battle River - Crowfoot in August 2025, after Poilievre was booted out of his Ottawa Carleton seat in 2025. They would rather have him, than an independent local with deep roots in the community. Some of the loudest bleating is about policies enacted by a Conservative government led by an Albertan. See equalization. It's a total fantasy of course, but imagine a world where Albertans switched their vote to NDP, and it held the balance of power in the House.

They also know that it's easily possible to form a majority government without needing any Alberta seats in the house because it's been done. The Liberals are very good at figuring out where the votes are, and getting them out in key ridings. The winning strategy is to spread the votes out just enough to get a few more votes than the next most popular party, in at least 172 seats. Which explains why Canadians can end up with a majority government with less than 40% of the popular vote. (Again, proportional representation.)

The other related fact to all this is that Quebec has 78 seats in the House of Commons, and even more importantly, the electorate can and does change how they vote. All the federal parties know most of those seats are in play, and adjust their campaigns accordingly.

Let's do the math here. 343 minus 78 is 265, and 172 are needed for a majority government. Mathematically that might be possible, but it means a near sweep of every other seat in the country. Ontario alone has 122 seats. And it's not like seats are distributed unfairly. Each MP in Alberta and Ontario serves almost exactly the same number of people on average. That's where people live and thus where the votes are. One person, one vote, and all. Tell some Albertans that a legitimate majority government could be formed with just seats from Ontario and Quebec and their heads would explode with rage.

Yes, Alberta is often out of step with the rest of Canada on a variety of issues, but it baffles me why separatists think they'll get a better deal as an independent nation. If Alberta can't negotiate with other provinces and the federal government as part of the country, how will they do better outside it? BC could, and probably would block any pipelines to the west coast, or impose such punishing tolls that it's uneconomic.

Joining the US as a state is a fantasy. We would go from being the most prosperous province per capita to being a mid-pack state. That doesn't sound promising for getting more attention paid to our issues. Why would the US want Alberta as a state, rather than a territory? By their standards, we're practically Commies and come with dangerous ideas, like single payer health care. And really, right now the US is a festering dumpster fire of racism and misogyny. Why would someone even visit if they had a choice about it?

Then we come to the Clarity Act of 2000, passed in the wake of a Quebec referendum on separation. So the argument of "Quebec got to hold a referendum without consultation with anybody, why can't we?" is moot because the rules changed. And no, they can't notwithstanding clause their way out of consultation with First Nations.

A summary of the Clarity Act:

Giving the House of Commons the power to decide whether a proposed referendum question was considered clear before the public vote;
Specifically stating that any question not solely referring to secession was to be considered unclear;
Giving the House of Commons the power to determine whether a clear majority had expressed itself following any referendum vote, implying that some sort of supermajority is required for success;[16]
Stating that all provinces and the indigenous peoples were to be part of the negotiations;
Allowing the House of Commons to override a referendum decision if it felt the referendum violated any of the tenets of the Clarity Act;
The secession of a province of Canada would require an amendment to the Constitution of Canada.

And on that last point, amending the Canadian Constitution requires requires a specialized process established in 1982, involving combinations of consent from the Senate, House of Commons, and provincial legislatures, rather than a single direct vote system. Most changes require the "7/50" formula: approval by Parliament and at least 7 provinces representing 50% of the national population.

In summary, you couldn't get that that group to sing Happy Birthday in unison. Any effort to open it to amend one specific point would soon descend into various groups withholding their support unless they get a cookie as well.

Let's just say, you don't hear much about the Clarity Act from Alberta separatists. They also enabled a massive data breach with voter records that completely taints their petition. The RCMP should send in a team to work with Elections Canada to investigate all involved. Heads should roll. I read a post that implied David Parker had fled to Texas rather than face the music, but I don't know if that's actually true.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

And yes, I want to be walking on this beach today. Almost any beach.