Near bridge 9

I managed to get a nice walk in Fish Creek near bridge 9 before the snowstorm rolled in. The bike path is bare and dry in most places, but all the foot paths that lead to interesting places are mostly linear puddles just now, and probably still have ice underneath in some places. I wasn't wearing rubber boots so I decided to only do the drier ones and turn back if it turned into a bog.

Since it was calm I was mainly looking for reflections. The water is low, which is a double edged sword. The good side is that I could walk into places that are normally underwater. The not so good is that less water makes reflection compositions more difficult. 

Then again, if it was easy then everyone would do it and it wouldn't be fun any more.

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Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film

Linda on Piha beach.

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

90 days, or so ago

March Image of the Month

I wasn't out much with the camera last month. As it turns out, one of the images I'm thinking of as IotM makes no sense without an explanation, and that quickly turns into another blog that belongs over on my photoblog site. It's a bit complicated, and I've been struggling with how to write it. 

So this is what I'm going to do. IotM is a bit of a different deal this time. The actual image is quite ordinary, but given the context of the moment it says something to me. I'm not quite old enough to actually remember seeing the Red Ensign flying on flagpoles, although I probably did. Our flag just passed 60 years, and still flying proud. More proud than ever. Long may it fly.

Various

There's a darkroom blog on the way, since I spent much of yesterday afternoon working on prints. That was fun. Keep an eye out on the other blog, if you're interested in that.

Have you got a new credit card lately? Ours arrived the other day, and at first I wasn't sure what they were. I could show you a photo of the face of it in perfect safety. The old style with the raised number, date, and name is no more. Everything is now printed on the back. No doubt an accountant figured out these are cheaper to produce. 

My wallet used to be this thick wad of leather, stuffed with various cards and bits of paper that seemed important enough to carry around. I had a physiotherapist tell me that carrying it in my back pocket was contributing to my sciatica. But now it's much thinner. The only plastic cards I carry around are the credit and debit cards, Costco, drivers license, the pool admission card, and a card with my eyeglasses prescription. Paper includes the car insurance, blue cross and Alberta Health Insurance in a plastic sleeve, and a birth certificate in plastic that is beginning to come apart. 

Plus a bit of cash money I like to carry around in case there's a problem with the credit card system, or I feel like paying cash for some reason. There are those that suggest paying cash again so the merchants don't have to pay credit card fees, but then they have to deal with the cash, which has a different cost. Don't get me started on the inability of most people to count change correctly. 

And now that I think about it, I have no memory of how I actually came to have these exact bills in my wallet. Don't get me started on memory, or the lack of it. We remember the things that are important, and I guess those 3 rectangular pieces of plastic are not important.

I know lots of people that don't carry any cash or credit cards. They have photos or the electronic versions of their cards on their phone, which they carry everywhere. This seems to be overly trusting to me, but then I'm a geezer now. Although I must admit that the Coop app and paying with the phone is convenient. In other news it doesn't look like the Alberta driver's license can be added to a phone. I haven't checked to see if the other cards can be added. 

The problem with everything on your phone is what happens if you lose it or it's stolen? Or cell service/internet/bank computers/some other random bit of cloud computing goes down? Or, if you travel to a despotic country where they make you open your phone and apps so they can look for thought crime. I don't get why anyone who is not a citizen would travel to the USA just now. Or why you'd stay if you have somewhere else to be. It hasn't been a safe place to be for quite a while now, and it's no longer a free country.

We had some friends over for the Mexican train game version of dominos, which was lots of fun. We ended up with these lovely flowers. I've been waiting for the lilies to open, and this morning was the time.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film

During stampede 2023, illustrating the problems of using a medium format range finder as if it were a autofocus point and shoot.

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

90 days, or so ago

An early version of a print that isn't quite right yet. 

I fear we have not reached peak stupid

Some of you know of the theory of Peak Oil. It says there is a limited amount of oil available, and that sooner or later we will run out of it, or it will cost more to extract than it's worth. There is a lot of complicated economics once you dive into more detail, and I don't propose to do that here. You can thank me later.

For years I've thought that we had reached peak stupid, and then someone would come along and say, 'hold my beer.' Then Donald Trump showed up and took us to new heights, or depths of stupidity. Over and over again. It's infecting everybody else, especially other politicians. Just about everything in politics right now is not just stupid, it's stupidly, insultingly stupid. A bright child could see through the lies and logical fallacies. More than ever I want to see 'none of the above' on the ballot. I dream of a real time fact checking panel controlling a flashing sign saying, 'liar liar pants on fire', and after some small number of lies the pants really are set on fire. Preferably on whatever the replacement is for live network television.

The news lately makes me want to hide under a rock. Way back in 2012 (here) I talked about the space aliens being in charge of network television because they like the taste of human tapioca brains. Now I'm guessing they are impatient, and have taken to politics. Maybe this is the high heat for a crusty finish after a low and slow barbecue session. Or maybe they want to increase the size of the herd. I can't help but think the harvest has to be coming soon.

As a digression, don't mind point 2 in that blog. I no longer love those social media sites.

Another digression. I just looked at the candidate list for my riding in the current federal election. So far the incumbent Conservative is the only confirmed candidate. Supposedly the Greens, and (ick) the PPC have a candidate working on their paperwork. As I've mentioned before, this is Stephen Harper's old riding, one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. I suspect we will get a Liberal and an NDP candidate, mainly because they consider themselves national parties and that means they run a candidate in every riding, no matter how hopeless it might be. I admit to wondering what the Liberal and NDP parties have to offer someone to run in this riding. So far all we've seen are big blue signs for the Conservative candidate. No lawn signs.

One wag has suggested I run, what with my 'high profile' experience on the local community association. It is to laugh. I do not want to spend the next 4 or 5 years of whatever time I have left, sitting on an airplane flying to meetings where lots of hot air is the best that can be hoped for.

Another digression, and a joke for you. A group of people get together for a meeting. Assuming you know each individual person's IQ, how do you calculate the IQ of the group? The best case is to take the highest individual IQ and divide it by the number of people in the group. At worst it is the Nth root of the highest IQ in the group, where N is the number of participants.

Which leads to the observation that nobody really knows what the various IQ tests are measuring, or how valid they are. The last thing on this topic is that if you have to tell people that you're a stable genius, or a tough negotiator, you are not.

This seems to me to be a good illustration of what has happened to schools of political thought.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

That tiny little dot off in the distance might be Linda.

Film

I've been watching Mythbusters lately, and this looks like something after one of their episodes. 

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

90 days, or so ago

You might recognize these rocks from late Feb.

Not an election post

Though I'm not 100% sure what it will be. Let's find out.

We're in the tough season for Calgary, one of the many springs. Just now it's T shirt weather outside. It might rain later, or it might not. Even though it's warm it wouldn't be a surprise to see snow. It goes back and forth, never quite make up it's mind. It drives the gardeners crazy.

When it's cold, it's nice to walk on Fish Creek and get into places that are essentially impossible during summer and fall. Plus the swampy areas are much prettier in the winter. The swamps, bogs, and wild voracious roses are a real hazard during summer and fall. During spring the ice is unreliable, and the bogs are new and hungry, though the roses haven't got started yet. 

I think we are a long way from green in our garden, but the plants are little optimists sometimes. They get started and Linda is all "Nooooooo! Not yet, there's more snow coming." Which is a safe bet.

This is what we have now.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

It's hard for me to believe this was taken almost exactly 5 years ago. Piha beach, just before coming home to COVID. Time flies.

Film

Rainy reflections in the nearby skate park

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Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did. 

I didn't, actually, because it's slightly out of focus. I was new to it all then, back in September 2016. This is a carefully chosen view to remind people of a time when the Calgary Tower was the tallest building here. Lots of buildings are taller than it now, and it's easily possible to get photos of downtown where the tower cannot be seen at all.

90 days, or so ago

Again, actually mid Feb, during the Elbow Falls ramble. My fascination with driftwood and all.

Curtis

I saw this while scrolling through the unblogged folder, and while I'm positive that I've blogged it, this is one of the best photos of him, and I don't think anyone will mind seeing it again.

Didn't see that coming

A poll released yesterday shows that if a federal election were to be held now, the Liberals might well win a majority of seats, currently projected at 177 seats where 172 is a majority.

A few short weeks ago the Conservatives were projected to win a crushing majority. Except a week is a long time in politics, and a lot has been happening. The 3 T's, Trudeau, Trump, and Tariffs have a lot to do with that swing. Plus Carney removed the carbon tax wind from Poilievre's sails. He is now scrambling for an issue, and trying to escape his previous Trump-like rhetoric.

Of course an election hasn't been called yet. Only Mark Carney knows when it will be, and if he doesn't know this very moment, he will probably decide soon. (Late breaking news as of Thursday morning, the election day is looking to be late April or early May.) I think Poilievre's head would explode if Carney cuts a deal with the Bloc to run a coalition government till October. After all, the Bloc is losing seats and would likely have far less influence after an election. Separatism (except for the Albertans breathing strange air) isn't a good look right now.

There are Albertans currently losing their minds at the thought of another Liberal government. There will be more hot air about seceding from Canada, just like there was when the Prime Minister was from Alberta. They're unhappy that Alberta doesn't get listened to and Quebec does. They think it's some sinister plot. What they are missing is an understanding of fundamental electoral numbers. Pay attention now. Those of you who already understand this can skip to the photos.

There are currently 338 seats in The House of Commons. Alberta has about 11.6% of the population in Canada and currently gets 34 seats, or essentially 10% of them. In the coming adjustment, Alberta will get 37 seats out of 343, or slightly more than 10% of the seats. One could make a mathematical argument that Alberta is slightly under represented, but there are only so many ways that the seats can be divided up between the provinces, and we have to look at what's fairest overall. There is no perfect way of dividing seats up between provinces.

Even if Alberta did get 1 or 2 more seats, it wouldn't really make any difference. The problem is that Albertans tend to vote in a bloc for Conservatives. The candidates run up huge pluralities. It's hard to get candidates to run against Conservatives in many ridings.

All the parties know this. So why would the Conservatives listen to Albertans? They're hustling for votes in Ontario and Quebec, saying the things that resonate there, looking for that majority government. Why would the Liberals, outside of a few seats in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary, waste any time or real money campaigning in Alberta? They'd far rather spend the money and effort in, you guessed it, Ontario, Quebec, and BC. 

The logic is perfectly understandable for most people. Better to spread the money and message across a large number of competitive ridings with the aim to win all of them by a small plurality. This is why Conservatives can get more votes than Liberals, and end up with fewer seats. Those votes are concentrated in a few ridings. (Things would be different in a mythical Canada running some form of a proportional representation election. Don't get me started.)

Plus, as if that wasn't enough, Quebecers do not vote in a bloc, although many of them do vote for the Bloc. They they also might vote Liberal and even Conservative, depending on the issues of the day. This habit of changing their vote makes candidates pay more attention to them. Plus, Quebec currently has 71 seats of the 338, or about 21%. It's nearly impossible to form a majority government without at least some of the seats from Quebec. It's easily possible without any seats from Alberta, and I'm pretty sure it's happened. Looking up the most recent example is left as an exercise for the student.

The Conservatives and Bloc have been trying to win non-confidence votes at every opportunity, and haven't managed it yet. Think about it. Trudeau was enormously unpopular, and yet the Conservatives couldn't win a non-confidence vote. I think that says more about a lack of confidence in Poilievre and the Conservatives. 

Who will actually win the election? Nobody knows, of course. Right now the polls are looking good for the Liberals. That could change. You will hear much blither about an unelected Prime Minister. Bah! Carney in the position he is, is perfectly legitimate according to the current rules. More than 130,000 people across all the ridings voted for him. 

For years there was much ado about our "non-finance finance minister" Chrystia Freeland. Carney has more finance and economic experience than the entire Conservative caucus. Does this make them happy? No. Now they're saying he's an "elite globalist". Carney has years of experience managing complex national economic issues. Poilievre has none. All he's good at is barking like a rabid dog.

I sort of thought that seeing behind the scenes of the flag was sort of appropriate for this post. Pity that those flag waving COVID convoy idiots perverted the message of our flag.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

Taken just a few moments after one of my all time favourite photos, an LRT emerging from the sun. This is one of the problems of streets that line up east west.

90 days, or so ago

Actually, late Feb. I couldn't help myself from taking the photo of the river otter.