I fear we have not reached peak stupid

Some of you know of the theory of Peak Oil. It says there is a limited amount of oil available, and that sooner or later we will run out of it, or it will cost more to extract than it's worth. There is a lot of complicated economics once you dive into more detail, and I don't propose to do that here. You can thank me later.

For years I've thought that we had reached peak stupid, and then someone would come along and say, 'hold my beer.' Then Donald Trump showed up and took us to new heights, or depths of stupidity. Over and over again. It's infecting everybody else, especially other politicians. Just about everything in politics right now is not just stupid, it's stupidly, insultingly stupid. A bright child could see through the lies and logical fallacies. More than ever I want to see 'none of the above' on the ballot. I dream of a real time fact checking panel controlling a flashing sign saying, 'liar liar pants on fire', and after some small number of lies the pants really are set on fire. Preferably on whatever the replacement is for live network television.

The news lately makes me want to hide under a rock. Way back in 2012 (here) I talked about the space aliens being in charge of network television because they like the taste of human tapioca brains. Now I'm guessing they are impatient, and have taken to politics. Maybe this is the high heat for a crusty finish after a low and slow barbecue session. Or maybe they want to increase the size of the herd. I can't help but think the harvest has to be coming soon.

As a digression, don't mind point 2 in that blog. I no longer love those social media sites.

Another digression. I just looked at the candidate list for my riding in the current federal election. So far the incumbent Conservative is the only confirmed candidate. Supposedly the Greens, and (ick) the PPC have a candidate working on their paperwork. As I've mentioned before, this is Stephen Harper's old riding, one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. I suspect we will get a Liberal and an NDP candidate, mainly because they consider themselves national parties and that means they run a candidate in every riding, no matter how hopeless it might be. I admit to wondering what the Liberal and NDP parties have to offer someone to run in this riding. So far all we've seen are big blue signs for the Conservative candidate. No lawn signs.

One wag has suggested I run, what with my 'high profile' experience on the local community association. It is to laugh. I do not want to spend the next 4 or 5 years of whatever time I have left, sitting on an airplane flying to meetings where lots of hot air is the best that can be hoped for.

Another digression, and a joke for you. A group of people get together for a meeting. Assuming you know each individual person's IQ, how do you calculate the IQ of the group? The best case is to take the highest individual IQ and divide it by the number of people in the group. At worst it is the Nth root of the highest IQ in the group, where N is the number of participants.

Which leads to the observation that nobody really knows what the various IQ tests are measuring, or how valid they are. The last thing on this topic is that if you have to tell people that you're a stable genius, or a tough negotiator, you are not.

This seems to me to be a good illustration of what has happened to schools of political thought.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

That tiny little dot off in the distance might be Linda.

Film

I've been watching Mythbusters lately, and this looks like something after one of their episodes. 

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

90 days, or so ago

You might recognize these rocks from late Feb.

Not an election post

Though I'm not 100% sure what it will be. Let's find out.

We're in the tough season for Calgary, one of the many springs. Just now it's T shirt weather outside. It might rain later, or it might not. Even though it's warm it wouldn't be a surprise to see snow. It goes back and forth, never quite make up it's mind. It drives the gardeners crazy.

When it's cold, it's nice to walk on Fish Creek and get into places that are essentially impossible during summer and fall. Plus the swampy areas are much prettier in the winter. The swamps, bogs, and wild voracious roses are a real hazard during summer and fall. During spring the ice is unreliable, and the bogs are new and hungry, though the roses haven't got started yet. 

I think we are a long way from green in our garden, but the plants are little optimists sometimes. They get started and Linda is all "Nooooooo! Not yet, there's more snow coming." Which is a safe bet.

This is what we have now.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

It's hard for me to believe this was taken almost exactly 5 years ago. Piha beach, just before coming home to COVID. Time flies.

Film

Rainy reflections in the nearby skate park

.

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did. 

I didn't, actually, because it's slightly out of focus. I was new to it all then, back in September 2016. This is a carefully chosen view to remind people of a time when the Calgary Tower was the tallest building here. Lots of buildings are taller than it now, and it's easily possible to get photos of downtown where the tower cannot be seen at all.

90 days, or so ago

Again, actually mid Feb, during the Elbow Falls ramble. My fascination with driftwood and all.

Curtis

I saw this while scrolling through the unblogged folder, and while I'm positive that I've blogged it, this is one of the best photos of him, and I don't think anyone will mind seeing it again.

Didn't see that coming

A poll released yesterday shows that if a federal election were to be held now, the Liberals might well win a majority of seats, currently projected at 177 seats where 172 is a majority.

A few short weeks ago the Conservatives were projected to win a crushing majority. Except a week is a long time in politics, and a lot has been happening. The 3 T's, Trudeau, Trump, and Tariffs have a lot to do with that swing. Plus Carney removed the carbon tax wind from Poilievre's sails. He is now scrambling for an issue, and trying to escape his previous Trump-like rhetoric.

Of course an election hasn't been called yet. Only Mark Carney knows when it will be, and if he doesn't know this very moment, he will probably decide soon. (Late breaking news as of Thursday morning, the election day is looking to be late April or early May.) I think Poilievre's head would explode if Carney cuts a deal with the Bloc to run a coalition government till October. After all, the Bloc is losing seats and would likely have far less influence after an election. Separatism (except for the Albertans breathing strange air) isn't a good look right now.

There are Albertans currently losing their minds at the thought of another Liberal government. There will be more hot air about seceding from Canada, just like there was when the Prime Minister was from Alberta. They're unhappy that Alberta doesn't get listened to and Quebec does. They think it's some sinister plot. What they are missing is an understanding of fundamental electoral numbers. Pay attention now. Those of you who already understand this can skip to the photos.

There are currently 338 seats in The House of Commons. Alberta has about 11.6% of the population in Canada and currently gets 34 seats, or essentially 10% of them. In the coming adjustment, Alberta will get 37 seats out of 343, or slightly more than 10% of the seats. One could make a mathematical argument that Alberta is slightly under represented, but there are only so many ways that the seats can be divided up between the provinces, and we have to look at what's fairest overall. There is no perfect way of dividing seats up between provinces.

Even if Alberta did get 1 or 2 more seats, it wouldn't really make any difference. The problem is that Albertans tend to vote in a bloc for Conservatives. The candidates run up huge pluralities. It's hard to get candidates to run against Conservatives in many ridings.

All the parties know this. So why would the Conservatives listen to Albertans? They're hustling for votes in Ontario and Quebec, saying the things that resonate there, looking for that majority government. Why would the Liberals, outside of a few seats in Edmonton and maybe one in Calgary, waste any time or real money campaigning in Alberta? They'd far rather spend the money and effort in, you guessed it, Ontario, Quebec, and BC. 

The logic is perfectly understandable for most people. Better to spread the money and message across a large number of competitive ridings with the aim to win all of them by a small plurality. This is why Conservatives can get more votes than Liberals, and end up with fewer seats. Those votes are concentrated in a few ridings. (Things would be different in a mythical Canada running some form of a proportional representation election. Don't get me started.)

Plus, as if that wasn't enough, Quebecers do not vote in a bloc, although many of them do vote for the Bloc. They they also might vote Liberal and even Conservative, depending on the issues of the day. This habit of changing their vote makes candidates pay more attention to them. Plus, Quebec currently has 71 seats of the 338, or about 21%. It's nearly impossible to form a majority government without at least some of the seats from Quebec. It's easily possible without any seats from Alberta, and I'm pretty sure it's happened. Looking up the most recent example is left as an exercise for the student.

The Conservatives and Bloc have been trying to win non-confidence votes at every opportunity, and haven't managed it yet. Think about it. Trudeau was enormously unpopular, and yet the Conservatives couldn't win a non-confidence vote. I think that says more about a lack of confidence in Poilievre and the Conservatives. 

Who will actually win the election? Nobody knows, of course. Right now the polls are looking good for the Liberals. That could change. You will hear much blither about an unelected Prime Minister. Bah! Carney in the position he is, is perfectly legitimate according to the current rules. More than 130,000 people across all the ridings voted for him. 

For years there was much ado about our "non-finance finance minister" Chrystia Freeland. Carney has more finance and economic experience than the entire Conservative caucus. Does this make them happy? No. Now they're saying he's an "elite globalist". Carney has years of experience managing complex national economic issues. Poilievre has none. All he's good at is barking like a rabid dog.

I sort of thought that seeing behind the scenes of the flag was sort of appropriate for this post. Pity that those flag waving COVID convoy idiots perverted the message of our flag.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

Taken just a few moments after one of my all time favourite photos, an LRT emerging from the sun. This is one of the problems of streets that line up east west.

90 days, or so ago

Actually, late Feb. I couldn't help myself from taking the photo of the river otter.

After Elbow Falls

A recent ramble with Sean started at Elbow Falls. From there we went down to Diamond Valley (Black Diamond, if you hadn't heard about the name change.) to check out the Sheep River just north of town. Neither of us had been there before and I'm not sure it's worth another visit. We did not walk on the ice. 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

We stopped for lunch in the Longview Saloon. OK food, and a friendly waitress. We waved to Dave in the Flic Film store, but didn't stop.

6. From there we headed south to Chain Lakes. We were astonished to see people still driving on the ice after all the warm weather we've had. I'm sure that somewhere there is a way to know if it's safe. I was thinking of the scene in American Gods where people from a local town put a wrecked car on the ice, and have a pool on when it goes under.

7.

8. The light was kind of odd, and I was exploring it a bit, looking for abstracts in the ice. Other than this one, nothing worth posting.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film

Last of the film photos from Elbow Falls. You might recognize this little pool.

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

90 days, or so ago

A mid December selfie.

Looking for reflections

Spring is often a good time to look for reflection photos. Even a puddle of filthy water can make for a nice photo, if the light is right, and there's something interesting to reflect.

These are from a walk in Fish Creek.

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Of the Day

Driftwood (NZ)

Film 

Another from the recent Elbow Falls ramble.

Linda

Newfoundland

Polar bears

Why ever didn't I publish this, and maybe I did

Except I don't think I did, although there is a photo from the same place, here. It's from a secret place in downtown Calgary. You get a bonus here, just because. Never let it be said my readers don't get the occasional bonus.

90 days, or so ago

OK, busted. It's just the oldest in that folder, from Feb 7 when Michelle and I went to cSpace to look at prints. This was figuring out focus and exposure so I could stand there and she click the shutter. You can see that version here. Though really, she is much more photogenic.