Monday, August 10, 2020

Not the time to get freeform with the whole situation

Once upon a time it was fine to make up things as you went along. What was the worst that could happen? Well, aside from you and your family starving to death. Or dying because you didn't think that getting a cut on your hands was a big deal. Often people didn't really know what the risks were, and even if they did, there wasn't much they could do about it, other than carry on as best they could and hope to have enough children to feed them if they got old.

The world is more complicated now. Far more complicated than a tweet, as I like to say. Things are not only more complicated, they are tied together in ways that are not intuitively obvious. Yes, oddly enough, you still need to be concerned about a fresh water pipeline failing. Too much water in the wrong place can be a bad thing.

Until recently there wasn't much we could do about disease. We didn't know what caused it, "bad air" was a real theory for a long time, and typically couldn't cure it, "cupping" was a thing, hard as that is to believe. Typically more people died in wars from disease than died from the actual fighting. Then there were all the diseases caused by malnutrition.

We discovered microscopes, and started understanding biology, and that washing your hands (and body, and surgical instruments) was important. Penicillin changed the world. Vaccines are a thing, and can prevent many diseases. We figured out how to treat water so it was safe to drink, and how to supply it to nearly every home, and treat sewage so it was safe to release back into a stream or lake.

It's easy to say those things now, but it took essentially all human history to figure it out, or more importantly, to figure out HOW to figure it out. What just kills me is that some people don't believe we have figured it out. They just carry on with the same old same old, thinking that their ignorance is as good as someone else's science.

Except that someone else's science is typically the product of decades of study building on what might be generations of previous study. Actual peer reviewed, closely documented study, not 5 minutes browsing some site that makes Wikipedia look like the most authoritative source ever.

Sometimes newer studies refine our understanding, such as when Einstein revised the Newtonian view of the world. Sometimes the studies changed our previous understanding, such as when Copernicus published De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium in 1543. Some people don't understand that, they are looking for a one simple eternal 'truth', with a capital T, that can be stated in a tweet. And you already know what I think of that.

The consequences of making it up as you go along are no longer confined to you and your family, much as you might wish it to be. We are all a part of herd immunity. You can't pipe the discharge from your toilet into the storm water system, or onto your neighbour's lawn. You can't drive down the wrong side of the road or run red lights without almost immediate and potentially catastrophic consequences. You can't yell fire in a crowded theatre. There are many times our individual actions are constrained for the overall good of society.

Now here we are in a pandemic. Really, truly. And what is happening in Sturgis, South Dakota? The very definition of freeform. People coming from all over the country to party at a motorcycle rally, and then go home again. Let's unpack that just a little, shall we?

Coming from every part of the country. They are. About a half million are expected to attend. The town is only a few thousand, so it's almost certain that people are going to freeform their camping. Statistics guarantee that some of these people have COVID, potentially several thousand. They probably just don't know it. Or maybe they do, and don't care. It's just the flu, after all, or so they think.

The party part, having spoken to people that have been there, is loud, raucous, and decidedly individualistic. Whatever freak flag there is to be flown, you'll find it there. And it's not just party, it's PARTY!!! Social distance will be observed far more in the breech than the observance. That's another guarantee. Few will be wearing masks because, freedom! They will all breath each other's moist exhalations, and then they will take the virus everywhere along every path between Sturgis and home, it having multiplied and been fruitful. The virus is going to party as well. In fact, the virus project managers are doing handsprings and cartwheels in project central. This is beyond their wildest dreams. Late August there will be another uptick in the number of cases. You read it here first.

It's often hard to assess risk, even with the best of advice. There is a certain element of society that wants to live big, party hard, and go out in a blaze of glory, so their name will live forever. Others want to hide in a bunker with multiple HEPA filters between them and the outside air, as they bathe in hand sanitizer. Most of us are somewhere in between.

But if ever there was a time in our lifetimes to keep a low profile, to not freeform the whole situation, now is it. Living cautiously for a few months, with more distractions than Carter has pills (to use an expression my grandfather liked) seems like a small price to pay for not getting with a virus that has the potential to kill you, or if not that, mess you up badly enough you might never be considered 'recovered.'


Of the Day
Michelle

Celina, snoozing in the sun, more


Flowers You might think the roses have been getting ignored this year, but they are doing well.

White Peony

Driftwood Do you see the unicorn?


1 comment:

  1. Freedom as defined as being freed from restraint misses the idea that freedom also has responsibilities. This is especially true during a pandemic when the selfishness of 1 or 500 thousand puts others at risk. There is a very real difference between bubbles and bathtubs.
    Photographically that is a lovely beach and made more so by the perspective you chose. This image might work even better in 16x10 format. Most of the sand would be preserved and the sense of horizontal space would be accentuated. Cheers, Sean

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