Sunday, April 26, 2020

I often feel like he looks

This is a fairly normal expression for Curtis.


He is a kitty that likes to think about things. He often tells me that if I open the door for him just one more time he'll figure out the locks and be able to go out by himself. He watches carefully, but hasn't got it so far. Next week, I admit, might be different. He sometimes appears to be on the brink of a breakthrough.

In this photo I was chatting with some buddies via Zoom and woke him up. He settled in and watched me for a while, and I could see plain as day he was wondering who I was talking to and why it wasn't him. After a few minutes he settled into the expression you see. Thinking. Probably muttering 'rotten human' to himself.

I look at what's going on in the world and think about it a lot myself. All too often my main thought is WTF.  (You can safely read in lots of exclamation marks after that.) I get there are lots of ways the COVID-19 pandemic numbers can be sliced, and there is some uncertainty to the numbers, more in some countries, less in others.

The current numbers for Alberta as I write on Saturday afternoon is 216 new cases, 4233 total cases, and 73 deaths. 1471 are listed as recovered, but recent news indicates that they could still catch it again. These are the cases that we know about. The actual numbers can only be higher, and we don't know if they are a little bit higher, or a lot higher. The province has completed 127,165 tests. Note, the population of Alberta is 4.41 million as of March 2020. We have tested about 2.9% of the population, and probably actually slightly less, given that at least some people will have had multiple tests.

That is 1.7 deaths per 100 cases. Yes, some of these are elderly, or have underlying conditions, but does it really matter? Some are young and healthy. I haven't seen a good breakdown of the demographics of the deaths, but then, I haven't particularly gone looking either.

Suppose you knew that someone was going around a building with a box of candy. All the candy is tainted a bit, and 2% of them are actually tainted enough to kill the person who eats it. If the person comes close enough to touch you, you have to eat a candy from the box. Some of the people who eat a candy get a box of their own, and start to wander around the building offering candy. Wouldn't you take extreme measures to keep them away from you?

Really, you're willing to risk an avoidable 2% chance of death for an intangible like 'the economy'? Oh, wait, I get it. You're willing for other people to take that risk. The elderly, the immune-suppressed, the homeless, those dealing with the virus while having to wear sub-standard PPE.

There is growing evidence that the virus causes other damage even when it doesn't kill the victim. That damage may leave the victim more susceptible to other illnesses, or may shorten their life. We don't really know for sure yet.

So in the WTF department, why did I see a wedding procession of more than a dozen cars full of people pull out of a side street near my house, and go honking down the street, streamers and balloons waving from the cars? Why do I see a bunch of kids ignoring the rules about closed playgrounds? Why do I see someone giving a security guard a hard time when all they're trying to do is space out the number of people going into a grocery store? WTAF, people?

I picture someone who is infectious with the virus looking something like a comet. There's the bright ball and a long fuzzy tail. The ball and tail is the virus, spreading in the air and persisting on surfaces behind that person. The closer you are, the more likely you are to get sick. They cough when you're both in an elevator and you're quite likely to get it. Touch a surface they just touched, and then wipe your mouth, you're less likely to get it but still possible, though there's a lot of uncertainty about the details.

The estimates of how long the virus will live on a surface and still be infectious are just that, estimates. It depends on a lot of factors, such as the exact variety of virus, the type of surface, air humidity, ordinary cleanliness of the surface, and probably other factors as well.

So imagine there's someone, feeling fine but infectious as hell, leaving a trail of virus behind them with every breath, cough, and sneeze. Everything they touch, everything they breath on, everything their sneeze spittle lands on gets some degree of infection.  Someone could touch one of those surfaces, and then touch something else, leaving the virus there, and then wash their hands. A doorknob could be infectious for 5 days if not sanitized. If you're vulnerable to the virus, it isn't a 2% death rate, it's much higher. It's hard to argue that you're being over the top unreasonable as you swab and sanitize everything around you.

So that's the WTF death and sickness side of things. Here's some spring and new growth WTF awesomeness, plants growing where just a week ago there was ice and snow.






Driftwood of the Day



2 comments:

  1. Spring is always welcome and that is particularly true this year. The cycle of new growth beginning again and warmth in the days are welcome antidotes to WTF. Cheers, Sean

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  2. Another great rant! And I agree completely that, unfortunately, far too many folks are prepared to risk other people's lives for dumbass reasons. Thanks for the lovely spring images. It's just getting started here, though we did see some lovely daffodils when we were out walking yesterday.

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